Macro & Trends

Identified 5 U.S. small and mid-cap stocks (POWL, MOD, AEIS, SPXC, NVT) exposed to MV switchgear, precision power, and liquid cooling bottlenecks in the data center BOM, which is being redesigned due to NVIDIA's 800V HVDC standardization. Top 3 Overweight: POWL, MOD, AEIS.

Mapping the AI supercycle to a lifecycle relay of 5 waves (22-24 GPU/HBM, 24-26 NAND/CPO, 26H2+ ENERGY, 27-29 COOLING/GRID, 28-30 PHOTONIC/HUMANOID). Currently OW on 26H2 ENERGY (GEV/VRT/CEG/TLN/VST/ETN/PWR + KR Doosan Enerbility). Optimal timing for seed positions in the subsequent waves (Cooling 2.0, Photonic Compute, Humanoid). NET +80 → OW.

Analyzing the shift in CPU bottleneck structure within AI agent workloads. A comparison of Intel, Qualcomm, and ARM: Qualcomm rated Outperform (Forward P/E of 11.79x, probability-weighted upside of +10.9%), Intel rated Underperform (P/E of 130x+, overheated), and ARM rated Underperform (extreme valuation).

In agentic AI workloads, CPUs account for 50-90% of E2E latency, resulting in a GPU-to-CPU bottleneck shift. We rate Intel (DC bottleneck) as OW, Qualcomm (edge bottleneck) as EW, and ARM (IP dominance) as EW.

Analysis of CXL (Compute Express Link) memory ecosystem entering the S-curve inflection point. Mapping investment opportunities centered on value chain bottlenecks (controller/tester). Overall signal: Overweight, weighted expected return MU +20.5%, Samsung Electronics +15.7%.

Iran War Day 29: Stagflation regime triggered by the Strait of Hormuz blockade. All six signals are bearish (Net Score -55, UW). The expiration of the energy sanctions waiver on April 6th and the unofficial ceasefire target of April 9th represent key inflection points. We recommend increasing cash holdings and preparing for a reversal trade upon a ceasefire.

Analysis of Google Research's TurboQuant 3-bit KV Cache Quantization Technology — 6x Memory Reduction, 8x Inference Speed Improvement, and 50%+ Cost Reduction. Amidst the Memory Stock Plunge (Samsung -4.8%, SK Hynix -5.9%), we are exploring Jevons' paradox-based beneficiaries. Overall Signal OW +31.0.

Based on the GTC 2026 Groq 3 LPU/Feynman architecture announcement, we analyze the BOM changes (increased SRAM, decreased HBM) during the transition from training to inference chips, supply shortages (CoWoS, SRAM dies, T-glass, MLCC), and beneficiary companies (TSMC, SK Hynix, Samsung, Broadcom, Hanmi Semiconductor). Signal score +50.25 (Overweight).

OFC plenary session simultaneously unveiled NVIDIA's dual keynote speeches, Coherent's 6.4T CPO, and Lumentum's 1.6T DR4 demonstration. Day 2 comprehensive analysis reveals the physical infrastructure supporting the $1 trillion order backlog confirmed at GTC, now materializing at OFC. Signal Score +22.7 (OW).

NVIDIA's potential $20B acquisition of Groq accelerates the AI Training-to-Inference shift, reshaping the semiconductor supply chain BOM. Expect continued CoWoS bottlenecks (7.7x supply gap), a surge in SRAM die area, and Samsung Foundry's commencement of Groq 3 LPU mass production (9K→15K WPM). BOM beneficiaries: Broadcom (AVGO), TSMC (TSM), SK Hynix (000660), and Hanmi Semiconductor (042700). TAM is projected at $570B by 2033 (CAGR 27.4%). Top Picks: AVGO OW / TSM OW / 000660 OW / 042700 OW / MRVL EW+.

Industry analysis on the severity of bottlenecks in 10 key components (ABF substrates, MLCCs, power semiconductors, SerDes, ATE, GDDR7, silicon photonics, liquid cooling, CXL, PIM) newly/increasingly deployed in AI inference chips. Signal-weighted score +23.75 → Overweight. Expected return +13.4%.

NVIDIA's GTC event showcased a $1 trillion order backlog and the initial mass production of Spectrum-X Photonics CPO, while OFC featured a sold-out exhibition with 16,000 attendees and extensive demonstrations of 1.6T transceivers. These two conferences concurrently confirm a fiber optic supercycle. Overall Rating: OW (Overweight), Net Score +24.

A comprehensive analysis of the GTC 2026 Vera Rubin GPU and OFC 2026 optical communication technology announcements. Assessing the structural impact of the AI computing roadmap on optical communication demand, the competitive landscape between CPO and pluggable technologies, value chain bottlenecks and beneficiaries, mapping of Korean beneficiaries, and judgment on entry into the early stages of the S-curve accelerator. Industry Score +42 OW.

Quant/Risk analysis of the optical communication sector based on the GTC 2026 keynote and OFC 2026 Day 1. Quant score +32 (TAM expansion, growth momentum), risk score -28 (valuation overheating, geopolitics). Net +4, resulting in an Equal Weight rating. COHR/LITE flagged as overheated, AVGO/CIEN with relatively reasonable valuations.

Preliminary analysis of NVIDIA GTC 2026 (March 16-19) focusing on five key technology themes: CPO photonics, Edge AI, Physical AI, Digital Twins, and AI Agents. Identifying undervalued investment opportunities. Top picks: MRVL (Fwd P/E 23x), QCOM (12.4x), BSY (28x).

Ahead of OFC 2026 (March 15-19), fiber optic cable prices are surging 75% due to explosive demand for AI data centers, with preform bottlenecks expected to persist for 2-3 years. Hyperscaler capex is projected at $660-690B, driven by the transition from 800G to 1.6T, and the simultaneous inflection point in CPO and HCF technologies. We are issuing a conditional Outperform rating.

Ahead of GTC 2026 (March 16-19), we analyze the investment implications of Vera Rubin, silicon photonics, and the $690B CAPEX cycle. With a Signal Score of +55 (Overweight) and a Forward P/E of 22.1x, valuation appears reasonable relative to growth.

The largest oil supply disruption in history (closure of the Strait of Hormuz, taking 20 million bbl/day offline) is triggering the beginning of global stagflation. South Korea, with its 62-70% dependence on Middle Eastern oil, is the most vulnerable among developed nations. Signal: UW, Net Score -26.75.

The potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran conflict is triggering a simultaneous triple squeeze on oil, fertilizers, and logistics, propagating an unprecedented, complex supply shock throughout the global food value chain. The fertilizer shock is the key transmission channel, and the timing collision with the Northern Hemisphere planting season makes food inflation inevitable in the second half of the year. Net Score +32.95 → OW (Overweight).

In February-March 2026, a series of redemption restrictions occurred in private credit funds at the world's top three alternative investment firms: Blue Owl (OBDC II perpetual gate), Blackstone (BCRED record-high redemptions), and BlackRock (HLEND 5% cap). We attribute this to structural issues including liquidity mismatches, AI/SaaS disruption, and maturity walls. Signal Score -80, Underweight rating.

We analyze the potential end date of the Iran war, which began on February 28, 2026, under three scenarios: short-term (4-8 weeks), mid-term (3-6 months), and long-term (6 months+). We present asset allocation strategies for each scenario, based on six key variables. Net Score -28, Underweight rating.

We analyze the escalation scenario of a full-scale Middle East war and the potential for a global conflict following a preemptive strike on Iran by the US-Israeli coalition on February 28, 2026. Based on the assumptions of non-intervention by Russia and China, a defensive posture by NATO, and the non-deployment of nuclear weapons by Iran, we estimate a 15-25% probability of escalation to WW3. Net Score -34 UW rating.

Day 6 of the US-Israeli coalition's airstrikes on Iran, with the IRGC declaring a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, threatening 20% of global crude oil supply. KOSPI down -12.06%, a record drop, Brent at $82, and gold at $5,110. Negotiations stalled, making a short-term ceasefire unlikely. Net Score -18 (borderline EW, UW).

KOSPI triggers circuit breaker (7th time in history), down 12.07% to 5,093 intraday. USD/KRW breaks through 1,500. Iran war day 5, Hormuz blockade enters implementation phase. Base case trough revised down to 4,200-4,800.

Iran-U.S. War Day 4: Battlefield Analysis. Strait of Hormuz blockade, Hezbollah opens second front, investment strategies by three scenarios (Bull/Base/Bear) amid global energy supply shock. Signal Score -38 (UW).

The KOSPI plummeted 7.24% to close at 5,791.91 on Iran war shock. A cross-validation of forecasts from five securities firms, coupled with historical pattern analysis and technical analysis, suggests a high-probability bottom in the 5,300-5,500 range. Expect a bottom to form in mid-to-late March, with a recovery to 6,000 within six months.

2/28 US-Israel joint airstrike on Iran → Khamenei's death → Despite the Strait of Hormuz blockade, the S&P 500 initially plunged -1.2% intraday before recovering to close near flat, while the Nasdaq finished up +0.36%. Historical war patterns, the buffer provided by defense and energy sectors, and dip-buying in AI mega-caps are driving the rebound. We maintain an OW (conditional) rating, with the key variable being the normalization of the Strait of Hormuz.

Analysis of three scenarios following signals of a US-Israeli strike on Iran, the death of Khamenei, and the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz (Diplomatic De-escalation 25%/Limited Engagement 42%/Full-Scale War 33%). Expect oil prices to reach ~$120, the US 10Y Treasury yield to range from 3.3% to 4.2%, and the Korean 10Y Treasury yield to range from 3.2% to 3.65%. (2/28)

We present three scenarios (full-scale war, limited war, early ceasefire) and their impact on asset classes given a hypothetical US-Israeli joint strike on Iran, the death of Khamenei, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, along with specific trading plans to implement before Monday's market open.

On 2026.02.28, the Israel-U.S. joint strike against Iran (Operation Shield of Judah) commenced. Risk of closure of the Strait of Hormuz; expect oil prices to surge to the $80-100 range and gold to break through $5,500+. Net Score -70 → UW (Underweight). Selective buying in defense/energy/gold, and recommend increasing cash holdings to 30%.