RPT-GEO-20260307-001 MACRO · GEOPOLITICS

Iran War End Time Prediction
3 Scenarios and Global Asset Strategies

8th day since the start of the war on February 28, 2026. Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, death of Khamenei, oil prices soaring 36%—
Global asset prices will fundamentally change depending on when the war ends.

📅 2026-03-07 🕐 D+8 (8th day of war) 📊 Signal: Bearish (High Conviction) ⚖️ Rating: UW on Risk Assets
Brent Crude
$92.69
+35% WoW · 2026.03.06
Gold Spot
$5,339
ATH · +22% YTD
KOSPI
5,093
-12.06% · Largest drop ever
S&P 500
6,830
YTD returns wiped out
Executive Summary

CIO's Comprehensive Judgment: "Reading the Timeline of a War with No Exit"

"Trump is talking about 4-5 weeks, and experts are warning about several months. But the real variable is 'who can sign the surrender on behalf of Iran'."
— CIO / Portfolio Manager · Signal Weighting Net Score: -28 (UW)
⚠ Invalidation: Full reassessment if an official ceasefire agreement is announced within 72 hours

FACT On February 28, 2026, the US-Israeli coalition launched 'Operation Epic Fury' to simultaneously strike Iran's military facilities, nuclear facilities, and leadership. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei died, and 80% of Iran's air defenses were neutralized. (Source: CNN, 2026.03.05; Al Jazeera, 2026.03.06)

FACT Iran officially blockaded the Strait of Hormuz and declared passing ships as targets. Tanker traffic plummeted from 50 on 2/28 to 0 on 3/3, disrupting 20% of global oil supply. (Source: CNBC, 2026.03.01; Kpler, 2026.03.01)

INFERENCE The timing of the end of the war is largely divided into three scenarios: (1) short-term conclusion (4-8 weeks), (2) mid-term stalemate (3-6 months), and (3) long-term war of attrition (6 months+). Current data points to a mid-term stalemate scenario (Base Case, 50% probability). This is because the 'lack of a negotiating partner' due to the leadership vacuum after Khamenei's death is a key bottleneck.

Key Investment Implications: It is more important to prepare asset allocation strategies for each scenario in advance than to accurately predict when the war will end. At this point, maintain OW on energy, defense, and gold and silver, and UW on risk assets (tech stocks, airlines, consumer goods).
Key Points
War Start 2026.02.28 (D+8)
Trump's Estimated Period 4~5 weeks (optimistic)
Expert Consensus Weeks to months
Iranian CIA Contact Confirmed via third country on 3/5
Iranian Foreign Ministry Position Refusal to officially negotiate
Risk Matrix
CRITICAL Prolonged blockade of Hormuz
CRITICAL Possibility of Iran hiding nuclear weapons
HIGH Regional escalation (Hezbollah, Houthis)
HIGH Russian information support for Iran
MED Spread of anti-war sentiment in the US
Conflict Timeline & Status
TIMELINE

War Progress Log (D+0 ~ D+7)

Date D-Day Major Events Signal Source
02.28 D+0 US-Israeli joint airstrikes begin. Khamenei dies. 80% of Iranian air defenses destroyed FACT CNN, BBC
03.01 D+1 Iran officially blockades the Strait of Hormuz. Brent surges 10-13% ($80-82) FACT CNBC, Kpler
03.02 D+2 Iranian retaliatory attack—Saudi and Qatari oil facilities hit by drones. Trump says "4-5 weeks" FACT Al Jazeera
03.03 D+3 Qatar LNG production halted (Ras Laffan and Mesaieed facilities hit). TTF gas +50% FACT CNBC, Reuters
03.04 D+4 Saudi Arabia and UAE declare support for US and Israel. KOSPI -12.06% record plunge FACT Money Today, Munhwa Ilbo
03.05 D+5 Iranian intelligence contacts CIA via third country for ceasefire. Key: Exploring "surrender conditions" RUMOR JPost, CNN
03.05 D+5 Defense Secretary Hegseth: "We have only just begun". WTI
Next steps
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