A multi-dimensional analysis of the expansion scenario of the Middle East all-out war, the possibility of transition to world war, and the impact on global asset markets, which unfolds after the preemptive strike on Iran by the US-Israel alliance on February 28, 2026.
FACT On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a large-scale joint military operation against Iran (US: Operation Epic Fury, Israel: Operation Roaring Lion). This operation resulted in the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Iran's nuclear facilities, air defense networks, and ballistic missile bases were struck. (Source: Wikipedia "2026 Iran war", CNN 2026.03.04, CNBC 2026.03.04)
FACT Iran immediately retaliated with "Operation True Promise III", attacking US military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, UAE, and Azerbaijan, and mainland Israel with ballistic missiles. On March 4, it carried out indiscriminate missile and drone attacks on oil refining facilities and airports in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and Saudi Arabia and the UAE supported the US-Israel side, expanding the local war in the Middle East. (Source: Al Jazeera 2026.03.04, MBC Newsdesk 2026.03.05, YTN 2026.03.05)
FACT The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) declared a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and tanker traffic has decreased by about 70% and has virtually stopped. This accounts for 20% of the global daily oil supply. (Source: CNBC 2026.03.01, Kpler 2026.03.01, Wikipedia "2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis")
INFERENCE The current conflict remains in the 'Limited Regional War' stage, and the probability of transition to world war is judged to be 15-25% based on the Base Case. The key grounds are that Russia and China are refusing military intervention, NATO is only maintaining a defensive posture, and Iran's deployment of nuclear weapons in actual combat has not yet been confirmed.
| Date | Event | Signal | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025.12 | Iranian economic collapse, rial crash → Anti-government protests in 100 cities nationwide | FACT | NPR 2026.02.23 |
| 2026.02.25 | US sanctions 30+ entities related to Iranian missile development & oil exports | FACT | Bloomberg 2026.02.25 |
| 2026.02.27 | Oman mediation: Iran agrees to give up uranium stockpile "breakthrough" — but stalemate over US demand to dismantle nuclear facilities | FACT | Al Jazeera 2026.02.28, CNBC 2026.02.27 |
| 2026.02.28 | US-Israel coalition launches preemptive strike on Iran, Khamenei dies | FACT | CNN 2026.03.04, Wikipedia |
| 2026.03.01 | Iranian retaliation: Missile attacks on US bases in Middle East & Israel, declares blockade of Strait of Hormuz | FACT | CNBC 2026.03.01, Kpler |
| 2026.03.02 | Hezbollah launches rocket & missile attacks on Israel → Israel bombs southern Lebanon & Beirut | FACT | Wikipedia, Al Jazeera |
| 2026.03.03 | Russia & China request emergency UN Security Council meeting, verbal condemnation only — no military support | FACT | Democracy Now 2026.03.02, CNBC 2026.03.02 |
| 2026.03.04 | Saudi Arabia & UAE declare support for US-Israel → Escalation due to Iran's indiscriminate attacks throughout the Middle East | FACT | MBC 2026.03.05, Al Jazeera 2026.03.04 |
| 2026.03.04 | US Senate fails to vote on War Powers Act → President Trump allowed to continue attacking Iran | FACT | CNBC 2026.03.04 |
| 2026.03.05 | US sinks Iranian frigate in Indian Ocean / Iranian Foreign Minister "Refuses Ceasefire Negotiations" | FACT | MBC 2026.03.05, CNBC 2026.03.05 |
| 2026.03.05 | Houthi rebel leader warns "Can join war at any time", still refraining from direct attacks | FACT | Times of Israel 2026.03.05 |
FACT Russia and China condemned the United States for "infringement of sovereignty" at the UN Security Council, but explicitly refused military support. (Source: Al Jazeera 2026.03.04, CNBC 2026.03.02, Chatham House 2026.03)
INFERENCE Probability of direct military intervention by Russia/China: Less than 5%.
The judgment that Russia and China refuse military intervention will be invalidated if any of the following occur: ① Russia directly deploys an S-400 or higher air defense system to Iran, ② the Chinese Navy dispatches warships to the Strait of Hormuz, ③ an emergency meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is convened and a joint defense is declared.
FACT NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that "NATO does not directly intervene in the Middle East situation," but as Iranian drones attacked a British Cypriot base, Greece dispatched 4 F-16s and 2 frigates. (Source: Stars & Stripes 2026.02.28, CNBC 2026.03.05)
INFERENCE Probability of NATO Article 5 being invoked: 10~15%.
FACT The IAEA has confirmed that Iran possesses 60% enriched uranium, but it is unconfirmed whether weaponization has been completed. (Source: WTOP 2026.02, Arms Control Association)
INFERENCE Probability of actual use of nuclear weapons: 3~5%.
FACT Hezbollah has already launched attacks on Israel, and the Houthi rebels are still refraining from direct participation. (Source: Foreign Policy 2026.03.02, Times of Israel 2026.03.05)
INFERENCE Probability of full participation of the 'Axis of Resistance': 30~40%.
FACT Brent oil at $85.41 (+21% WoW) due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Expected to break $100 if it continues. (Source: CNBC 2026.03.05, EIA 2026.03)
INFERENCE The current conflict is a 'US-Israel vs Iran bilateral war + limited proxy war' structure. Probability of transition to world war: 15~25%.