US-Israel joint Iranian air strike begins on February 28 → Confirmation of Khamenei's death → De facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. On March 2, the 3rd day of the war, the S&P 500 rebounded from a -1.2% intraday plunge to around the breakeven level, while the Nasdaq closed +0.36% higher. Wall Street's old adage, 'Buy the War,' worked once again.
FACT On February 28, 2026 (Fri), the United States and Israel launched a large-scale joint air strike against Iran. The attack, codenamed "Epic Fury" by the United States and "Roaring Lion" by Israel, targeted nuclear facilities, naval bases, and military command posts. In an 8-minute video statement, President Trump stated that the goal was a "substantial regime change." (Source: CNBC, NPR, 2026.03.01)
FACT On the morning of March 1 (Sat), Iranian state media confirmed the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This is the most significant event since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, and reactions inside Iran were a mixture of joy, shock, and disbelief. (Source: CNN, Al Jazeera, 2026.03.01-02)
FACT Iran launched retaliatory attacks with missiles and drones against Israel, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. Explosions were reported in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha. As of March 2, 6 US military fatalities have been confirmed. (Source: CBS News, Washington Post, 2026.03.02)
FACT With the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) declaring a ban on passage through the Strait of Hormuz, approximately 20% of the world's oil supply is at risk. Tanker traffic has decreased by approximately 70%, and more than 150 ships are waiting outside the Strait. (Source: Kpler, CNBC, 2026.03.01-02; Cross-validation: Al Jazeera, Wikipedia)
| Date | Event | Market Impact | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2/28 (Fri) | US-Israel Joint Iranian Air Strike Begins | After Market Close — Futures Plunge | CNBC, NPR |
| 3/1 (Sat) | Confirmation of Khamenei's Death / Iranian Retaliatory Missiles | Oil +7%, Gold Surpasses $5,300 | CNN, Al Jazeera |
| 3/1 (Sat) | De Facto Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz | Brent $79 → $ |