9 days after the start of the war on February 28, 2026. With the virtual blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices, fertilizers, and logistics are simultaneously blocked, and an unprecedented complex supply shock is spreading to the global food value chain. A head-on collision with the Northern Hemisphere's spring planting season amplifies the shock.
FACT On February 28, 2026, the US-Israeli coalition launched a large-scale air strike against Iran (Operation Epic Fury). Supreme Leader Khamenei died, and Iran retaliated with hundreds of missiles and thousands of drones. The Strait of Hormuz is virtually blocked, with tanker traffic close to zero.
FACT The food market shock of this conflict is transmitted through a structure of triple simultaneous blockade: (1) soaring energy costs — Brent $92.86 (+20% weekly), (2) disruption of fertilizer supply — 33% of global urea trade blocked, urea price +27%, (3) paralysis of maritime logistics — war insurance premiums up 8x, supertanker charter rates up 4x.
INFERENCE There is a decisive difference from the 2022 Ukraine war. Ukraine was a direct exporter of grain, but this time, the simultaneous blockade of fertilizer, energy, and logistics is transferred to food prices over time through the production cost route. The rise in grain prices may be relatively low, but the fertilizer shock is more rapid and immediate.