GPU·HBM in 22-24, NAND·CPO in 24-26, and ENERGY in the second half of 26. These three waves are already reflected or being reflected in the price. The real alpha (α) is in "the next after energy" — Cooling 2.0 + Photonic Compute + Humanoid Robotics in 27-29. This report summarizes the lifecycle mapping of 5 waves and the best stocks for each STAGE.
The AI supercycle is not a single trade. It is a relay where bottlenecks move. When a bottleneck in one stage is resolved, the throughput of the resolved stage flows to the next stage, and that stage becomes a new bottleneck. This pattern was accurately repeated from GPU shortage in 22 → optical communication shortage in 24 → power shortage in 26.
The first wave from 2022-2024 was GPU and HBM. As NVIDIA H100 shipments accelerated and SK Hynix/Micron's HBM capacity became insufficient, NVDA received a rerating of +10x in market cap since early 23 and SK Hynix received a rerating of +3x to the high point in 24. FACT This wave is already lagging.
The second wave from 2024-2026 is optical communication (CPO) and high-capacity NAND. NVIDIA announced the Spectrum-X Photonics switch on March 2, 2026, investing a total of $4B, $2B each in Coherent and Lumentum. FACT This means that optical communication has been promoted from a simple component to next to the GPU (Co-Packaged). NAND is also undergoing a next-generation supercycle due to the demand for AI learning dataset preservation and inference KV-cache.
The market has already begun to reflect it in the price. GE Vernova (GEV) recorded sales of $9.3B (+16% YoY), new orders of $10B (+59% organic), and backlog of $163B in Q1 2026, and raised its 2026 guidance to $41-42B, forecasting a backlog of $200B in 2028. FACT Vertiv's backlog increased by 109% YoY, and the 2026 guidance was revised upward for two consecutive quarters to $13.25-13.75B. FACT