Executive Summary
- In February-March 2026, a series of redemption restrictions occurred in the private credit funds of the world's top 3 alternative investment managers (Blue Owl, Blackstone, BlackRock), raising concerns about a liquidity crisis across the alternative investment sector. FACT
- Blue Owl: OBDC II($1.6B) permanently suspended redemptions (2/18), selling $1.4B in loan assets at 99.7 cents, emerging as the epicenter of the crisis. Stock price YTD -32.5%. FACT
- Blackstone: BCRED($82B) experienced a record 7.9% redemption request ($3.8B). Defensive response by fully executing + investing $400M by employees. FACT
- BlackRock: HLEND($26B) received a 9.3% redemption request, applying a 5% cap. Faced with stress tests immediately after the acquisition of HPS. FACT
- Signal Score -80/100 (Extremely Bearish), Rating UW(Underweight). Upward adjustment of Bear case probability from the usual 15% to 35%. INFERENCE
- Structural causes: Liquidity mismatch (3-7 year loans vs. quarterly redemptions), retailization (71% increase in unlisted BDCs), concentration in AI/SaaS sectors (~40%), maturity wall in 2026-27 ($330B). NARRATIVE
OWL YTD
-32.5%
$9.90
BX YTD
-27.5%
~$110
BLK YTD
-10.2%
~$1,049
VIX
29.48
+67% MoM
BCRED Redemption
$3.8B
7.9% of NAV
HLEND Redemption Request
9.3%
5% Cap Applied
Default Rate (Current)
4.55%
UBS Worst 15%
Bear Probability
35%
Up from Usual 15%
Section IEvent Overview and Timeline
Starting with the failure of the OBDC II merger in the fourth quarter of 2025, large-scale redemption requests and redemption restriction (Gate) events occurred in the private credit funds of alternative investment managers between January and March 2026. The timeline below summarizes the major events in chronological order. FACT
Exhibit 1