Commodities & Indices

Quantitative investment research report analyzing the causes of the 19.1% plunge in gold prices from $5,423 to $4,388 in March 2026, attributing it to five key catalysts: the Strait of Hormuz shock, a hawkish shift by the Fed, dollar strength, a series of margin calls, and Middle Eastern gold selling.

WTI spikes to $101.56 on US-Iran war/Strait of Hormuz blockade. Geopolitical premium of $37-45 priced in, with a fundamental fair value of $57-67. Optimal short entry at $100-110, stop at $115-116, target of $75 (6M). Aggregate signal -63.5 UW.

As of March 6, 2026, WTI stands at $79.52 and Brent at $84.17. Short-term geopolitical premiums of $4-$10/bbl have materialized due to Hormuz Strait tensions. However, EIA, GS, and JPM all project a mid-term supply glut ($51-$66). Net Score +6 → EW (Equal Weight), recommending a tactical approach.

Regime Diagnosis: FACT experienced consecutive sharp declines on 3/3 (-7.24%) and 3/4 (-12.06%), followed by a rebound in early trading on 3/5 (S1, S5, S6). This appears to be less of a trend reversal and more akin to the initial wave of a beta rebound following a liquidity shock.

On day 3 of the Iran war, gold (Gold) hit an all-time high of $5,417/oz, while silver (Silver) plummeted -5.78%. The divergence is attributable to five structural factors: the identity difference between pure monetary metal and industrial hybrid, concerns over industrial demand destruction due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade, asymmetric impact from a stronger dollar, and the exodus of speculative funds from COMEX.

On February 28th, confirmation of the Supreme Leader of Iran's death due to Operation Epic Fury by the US and Israel has emerged. In response, Iran has launched True Promise 4, striking US military bases in five Middle Eastern countries. Signals of a potential Strait of Hormuz blockade are being detected, threatening 20% of global oil supply. Expect a sharp $10-20 surge in oil prices at market open on Monday, with US Treasury yields falling below 3.5% and a corresponding decline in Korean Treasury yields.

[FACT] The KOSPI closed at 6,307.27 on February 26, 2026, a 3.67% increase from the previous day, maintaining its closing strength even after surpassing intraday highs. The difference between this figure and the domestically compiled figure for the same date (6,307.32) is negligible at 0.05 points. However, for the sake of consistency in closing price reporting, this report has locked in the Yonhap-cited value of 6,307.27 as the canonical value [S1][S2].

[FACT] A key characteristic of the non-ferrous metals market is the desynchronization within the same asset class. As of January 2026, the World Bank's price list shows that while aluminum (+3.19% MoM) and tin (+0.93% MoM) increased, copper (-0.71% MoM), nickel (-0.80% MoM), and zinc (-2.91% MoM) declined. Consequently, the simple average return of the five major metals was -0.06%, effectively flat. While seemingly stagnant on the surface, the supply and demand structures differ significantly for each metal. Therefore, a differentiated allocation strategy across metals is more effective than a single directional bet [S1].

Gold $5,000 · Silver $78 — Bubble or New Normal? In-Depth Analysis Special on Precious Metals.