The Gold & Silver Report

Gold $4,997.80 +$2,053 YoY

Silver $78.71 +147% (2025)

Au/Ag Ratio 63.5x Compressed compared to historical average

13 Agents Consensus Report

Gold $5,000 · Silver $78
Is this a bubble, or the new normal?

Gold surpassing the 1980 high based on inflation adjustment, silver with a supply deficit for 6 consecutive years — Mapping the structural forces operating beneath the surface

Part I — Current Price Diagnosis

Gold and Silver, What the Numbers Say

Indicator	Gold (Gold)	Silver (Silver)	Signal
Current Price (2/20)	$4,997.80/oz	$78.71/oz	FACT
2026 High	$5,501.36	$121.67 (1/29)	FACT
YoY Change	+$2,053 (+70%)	+147% (2025 Annual)	FACT
1980 High (Inflation Adjusted)	$3,590 → Currently Surpassed	$49.45 → Currently Surpassed	FACT
Au/Ag Ratio	63.5x (100x in April 2025 → Compressing)		FACT
Silver Supply Deficit	6 Consecutive Years · Expected Shortage of 149 Million oz in 2026		FACT

Agent 8 — Technical / Flow Trader

"Gold has been consolidating for 2 weeks at the $5,000 psychological support level. Attempting to rebound after a -9.1% correction from the January high of $5,501. Silver is in a bottoming-out phase after a sharp -35% correction from $121 → $78. Technically, gold is confirming support at $4,800, and silver is confirming support at $72."

Part II-A — Gold

Is a $5,000 Gold Price Rational?

In conclusion — It is structurally rational. However, there is a possibility that it has entered a short-term overheating phase. Based on inflation adjustment, the current $4,922 is still 10.5% below the all-time high of $5,501, and the real high of 1980 ($3,590) has already been surpassed.

5 reasons why we believe it is rational:

1. Structural Central Bank Buying FACT
863 tons purchased in 2025. 800~1,100 tons annually since 2022. Double the previous average (400~500 tons). Led by Poland (102t), Kazakhstan (52t), and China (officially 27t, estimated 270t+).

2. US Fiscal Crisis FACT
National debt of $38.57 trillion. Expected to reach 120% of GDP (2036). Interest costs alone are $1 trillion → $2.1 trillion (2036). Declining bond confidence structurally supports gold demand.

3. Collapse of the Real Interest Rate Relationship FACT
Gold-TIPS correlation coefficient from 2003~2021: -0.73. Since 2022: +0.02. Gold price rose +65% even at a real interest rate of 1.97% (18-year high). The traditional framework is not working.

4. Departure from Dollar Hegemony NARRATIVE
USD foreign exchange reserve ratio fell to 58.5%. BRICS gold-based 'Unit' currency pilot (2025.10.31). ASEAN establishes gold settlement strategy plan.

5. Surge in Investment Demand FACT
Investment demand: 205.2 tons (2024) → 551.2 tons (