Non-Ferrous Metals In-Depth Analysis

[FACT]The core of the non-ferrous metal market is non-synchronization within the same asset class. As of January 2026, in the World Bank price list, aluminum was +3.19% MoM and tin was +0.93%, but copper (-0.71%), nickel (-0.80%), and zinc (-2.91%) fell, so the simple average return of the top 5 metals was -0.06%, virtually flat. Superficially, it is a stagnant period, but since the supply and demand structure differs completely for each item, differential allocation by metal is more effective than a single direction bet [S1].

[FACT]The top-level economic framework coexists with the possibility of growth slowdown and re-acceleration. The IMF presented a global growth rate of 3.3% for 2026, while the World Bank presented 2.6%, resulting in a forecast spread of 0.7%p. This difference is interpreted not as a simple numerical error, but as a result of differences in assumptions about the speed of policy normalization and the path of trade friction. Therefore, the reasonable baseline for the current phase is conservatively viewed as the midpoint of 2.95% rather than a single number [S7][S8].

[INFERENCE]Looking only at supply and demand, copper is expected to have a refined market deficit (150kt) in 2026, while nickel (261kt) and zinc (271kt) are expected to have surpluses. In other words, an approach that views the entire non-ferrous sector as a single cycle has low explanatory power. The core conclusion of the report is industry opinion EW, and a pair structure combining selective overweighting centered on copper and defensive exposure reduction of nickel/zinc has the highest probability value [S9][S10][S11].

[FACT]The macro regime is ‘slow expansion + policy uncertainty’. While the World Bank mentioned the recovery of emerging markets, it also suggested that the overall growth rate would fall below the long-term average, and the IMF presented the risk of US tariff risk and increased uncertainty as downside factors. From the perspective of non-ferrous metals, volatility in the growth path is more important than the absolute growth rate, as this volatility greatly shakes inventory holding strategies and short-term/long-term spreads (contango/backwardation) [S7][S8].

[FACT]China's manufacturing sector limited the upside of short-term demand-sensitive items as the official PMI fell into contraction territory (below 50) in January 2026. A Reuters report confirmed the weakening of the official PMI in the same month, which is interpreted as a result of overlapping inventory adjustments before and after the Lunar New Year and a slowdown in export orders. This signal does not negate the structural strength of copper, but it acts as a constraint that moderates the slope of the first-half rally [S15].

[FACT]Within the industry cycle, the differentiation between copper and the remaining metals is clear. The ICSG presented a refined copper deficit for 2026, while the INSG and ILZSG forecast surpluses in the nickel and zinc markets, respectively. Even within the same non-ferrous sector, the valuation anchors of the copper chain, which is directly linked to electrification and grid investment, and the nickel/zinc chain, which still has expansion cycles, are changing [S9][S10][S11].

[INFERENCE]Long-term demand estimates also have a large dispersion. The gap between the IEA Data Explorer's 2040 total copper demand of 34.137Mt and S&P's forecast of 42.4Mt is 24.2%. This means that it is difficult to use a single numerical target in supply chain investment decision-making, and positioning should be linked to range estimation (34~42Mt) rather than point estimation. This report sees the direction of the long-term axis as upward, but takes a conservative approach to the speed assumption [S13][S14].