The non-ferrous metal market has entered a structural demand transition period beyond a simple economic cycle. AI data center copper consumption is estimated to reach 500,000 tons per year by 2030, which has the potential to exceed EV's copper demand in the US. AI is already rapidly taking over the position that EV held as the main player a year ago.
In the case of copper, 929,000 tons were lost in 2025 alone due to the suspension of supply from major mines worldwide. The refined copper market is expected to be in short supply by at least 40,000 tons in 2026 due to overlapping incidents such as the flooding of Grasberg, one of the world's largest copper mines in Indonesia, and the accident at the Kalando mine in Congo. In the US, where it takes an average of 29 years to obtain a permit for a new mine to increase supply, a structural solution is virtually impossible.
Aluminum has lost room for further production expansion as China approaches its self-imposed upper limit of 45 million tons per year. On the other hand, demand for solar panel extrusion materials, electric vehicle weight reduction, and power grid conductor materials is rapidly increasing. The World Bank forecasts that aluminum will reach a nominal dollar high in 2026-2027.
One noteworthy counter-intuitive thesis: Zinc and nickel will be alienated in this cycle. A global zinc surplus is inevitable in 2026-2027. This is because the expansion of new mines and smelters in Africa and Europe is outpacing demand growth. This is why a differentiated strategy within the sector is essential.
The Trump administration's copper import tariff (Section 232, potential 50%) issue has widened the arbitrage between New York and London to an abnormal level ($400/t). This increases short-term volatility, but creates the paradox of strengthening long-term demand by linking to policies to expand copper production in the US. The IEA announced that global energy investment will reach a record $3.3 trillion in 2025, with 2/3 of that concentrated in clean energy infrastructure. Non-ferrous metals are the main beneficiaries of this massive flow of capital.