DESK-TR-20260313-001 TREND ANALYSIS

Preliminary Analysis of GTC 2026:
Exploring Undervalued Areas to Watch in the Future

We preemptively analyze the 5 major technology themes to be unveiled at NVIDIA GTC 2026 (3/16~19) and explore undervalued investment opportunities that the market has not yet fully reflected. From the Vera Rubin platform to Physical AI, CPO optics, and AI agents — we identify the beneficiaries of the next wave.

AI Capex 2026
$690B
+36% YoY | Futurum 2026.02
NVDA Fwd P/E
22.2x
$183.14 | StockAnalysis 03.12
Fed Funds Rate
3.50%
Maintained | FOMC 01.28
Tech Rotation
-4.8%
Russell Growth YTD | Morningstar

Executive Summary

GTC 2026 will be held in San Jose from March 16-19, with over 30,000 attendees expected, and on-site passes are already sold out. FACT CEO Jensen Huang has directly announced that he will unveil "a chip the world has never seen before," and the Vera Rubin NVL576/NVL144 platform, NemoClaw open-source AI agent platform, and Feynman architecture preview are scheduled as key announcements.

This report pre-analyzes the 5 major technology themes of GTC 2026 and identifies undervalued stocks in each theme where growth potential relative to valuation is not fully reflected. Key findings:

Top 3 Undervalued Opportunities:
1. Marvell (MRVL) — Dual beneficiary of AI ASIC + CPO optics, Fwd P/E 23x (40% discount compared to peers)
2. Qualcomm (QCOM) — Largest beneficiary of edge AI, Fwd P/E 12.4x (lowest in the universe)
3. Bentley Systems (BSY) — Key beneficiary of digital twins, Fwd P/E 28x + Native Omniverse integration

Macro Environment: Fed Funds Rate frozen at 3.50~3.75%, February CPI at 2.4%, and increased volatility in oil prices due to the Iran war. However, hyperscaler AI Capex of $690B (+36% YoY) has already been committed, so AI infrastructure demand is partially decoupled from macro factors. FACT The "Great Rotation" from tech stocks to the real economy is underway, but this paradoxically provides an opportunity to enter undervalued AI tech stocks. INFERENCE

Key Risks: The overlap of the GTC (3/16) and FOMC (3/17-18) schedules is an unusual event risk. There is a precedent where the announcement at GTC 2025 was evaluated as a "gradual update," resulting in NVDA falling -3.4% on the day. FACT

Macro Regime: Tight Neutral + Geopolitical Stagflation Risk

Interest Rates/Inflation: Fed Funds Rate 3.50~3.75% (Frozen 2026.01.28), the market expects one rate cut within the year. February CPI 2.4% (YoY), Core CPI 2.5%. However, due to the Iran war (started 2/28), Brent crude oil surged from $70 to $110 and then fluctuated. The oil price effect is expected to be reflected from the March CPI. FACT

AI Capex Cycle: Total hyperscaler Capex in 2026 is $660~690B (MSFT $120B+, AMZN $200B, GOOG $175~185B, META $115~135B). Direct investment in AI infrastructure accounts for ~75% ($450B+). The Capex-to-OCF ratio is ~90%, with $400B planned for borrowing — the cost of financing is burdensome in a 4%+ interest rate environment, but the possibility of a significant reduction is low due to the strategic nature of AI competition. FACT

Sector Rotation: As of 2026 YTD, Russell 1000 Growth -4.8% vs Russell 2000 Value +8.9%. Energy +21.5%, Industrials +12.3%, Technology -3.0%. 26% of undervalued stocks in Morningstar coverage are tech stocks (9% a year ago) — tech stocks are rapidly entering undervalued territory. FACT This suggests a contrarian entry opportunity for GTC theme stocks. INFERENCE

Geopolitical Key: Iran's IRGC declared the closure of the Strait of Hormuz (03.11). NVDA's H200 exports to China are still unrealized (CNBC 02.26). 25% Section 232 tariffs imposed on semiconductors (01.14), but exemptions for data centers used in the US. FACT

GTC 2026 Event & Catalyst Timeline

GTC 2026 Overview: March 16-19, San Jose SAP Center. 30,000+ attendees from 190 countries, on-site passes sold out. Jensen Huang Keynote 3/16 11:00 PT, Investor Q&A 3/17 09:00 PT. FACT

CATALYST TIMELINE

Key Catalyst Timeline

Date Event Importance Tag
03.16 Jensen Huang GTC Keynote — Unveiling "Surprise Chip", Vera Rubin NVL576, NemoClaw Announcement ★★★★★ FACT
03.17 Investor/Analyst Q&A + FOMC Begins (Interest Rate Decision Overlap)