Hybrid Bonding Fan-Out (HBF) is a key bottleneck technology in the HBM4/HBM5 era. The transition from TCB to hybrid bonding is accelerating, and the reorganization of the equipment, materials, and substrate value chains has begun. In the structural growth of the $55B HBM market, who owns the bottleneck determines the outcome.
"The era of lithography is coming to an end. Packaging is becoming the new Moore's Law, and hybrid bonding is the core variable of that law."
FACT The global semiconductor market will reach $975B in 2026, with the first-ever $1T breakthrough just around the corner (WSTS, 2026.01). The HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) market, at the center of the AI supercycle, is expected to grow by 58% year-on-year to $54.6B (BofA, 2026.02).
INFERENCE The transition to the HBM4/HBM5 generation requires not just an increase in memory capacity, but a fundamental shift in packaging technology. With the existing TCB (Thermo-Compression Bonding) method, it is physically impossible to stack more than 16 layers, and hybrid bonding is the only solution.
FACT On February 12, 2026, Samsung Electronics began mass production and shipment of the world's first 12-layer HBM4 with full-layer hybrid bonding (Samsung Newsroom, 2026.02.12). SK Hynix plans to introduce hybrid bonding from HBM4E, and TSMC has commercialized Cu-Cu hybrid bonding with a 6μm pitch in SoIC.
NARRATIVE This report analyzes leading players (large-cap stocks) and mid-cap players (small and medium-sized stocks), focusing on the HBF (Hybrid Bonding Fan-out) technology ecosystem. The core investment philosophy is "Own the Bottleneck."
1. HBM Market $55B — 75% of AI capex $650-700B is invested in AI infrastructure, and structural supply shortage of HBM continues
2. TCB → Hybrid Bonding Transition — 2026 is a watershed, complete reorganization of equipment, materials, and substrate value chains
3. Packaging is a New Bottleneck — Even with the expansion of CoWoS to 130K, it is 20% short of NVIDIA's demand, and OSAT investment is surging
4. Korean Mid-Cap Ecosystem &mdash