JOBY · ACHR — 2026 eVTOL Certification Endgame, Two Different Paths

The Core Proposition of the eVTOL Industry in 2026: "Certification is Market Cap"

FACT Joby Aviation entered Stage 4 (TIA, Type Inspection Authorization) of the FAA Type Certification 5-stage process in April 2026. The FAA confirmed that the actual aircraft coming out of the Joby production line matched the certified design application, and also verified the reliability of the propulsion system and fly-by-wire redundancy. Stage 4 is the last step before the first commercial eVTOL certification in the United States (Source: eVTOL.Travel "Joby Hits FAA Stage 4", 2026-04; Aircraft Insider, end of March 2026).

FACT On the other hand, Archer Aviation's Midnight remains in Stage 3 at the same time. However, in January 2026, the FAA accepted the Means of Compliance (MOC), and at the same time, the UAE GCAA transferred Archer to the Restricted Type Certificate (RTC) track, establishing a bypass commercialization route outside the United States (Source: Commercial UAV News "Diverging Paths", 2026; investors.archer.com 2026 RTC announcement). The certification gap between the two companies is estimated to be approximately 6-12 months.

Cash·Dilution·Sales — Asymmetry of Borrowing Power

FACT Joby recorded cash and short-term investments of $2.47~2.50B at the end of Q1 2026 and a quarterly net loss of $109.95M. Revenue was $24.25M, exceeding the consensus of $20.17M by +20%, and EPS was −$0.12, beating the consensus of −$0.21 by +$0.09. The company presented FY26 revenue guidance of $105~115M (Source: ir.jobyaviation.com Q1 2026 results, 2026-05-05; MarketBeat, 2026-05-06; Yahoo Finance, 2026-05-05).

FACT Archer has revenue of $0.3M, a net loss of $188.9M, and cash+short-term investments of ~$1.96B in the previous quarter. The Q1 2026 consensus is revenue of $1.66M and EPS of −$0.25, and will be announced after the market closes on May 11 (local time) (Source: Meyka, 2026-05-05; TipRanks "ACHR Earnings Preview", 2026-05; StocksToTrade, 2026-05-06). The gap that Joby is building revenue, while Archer is still in the R&D stage is the key to the price difference.

Why the Gap Could Narrow or Widen

NARRATIVE Joby is likely to receive certification in the US mainland first and take the global standard. First commercial operation in Dubai (2026) 6-year exclusivity, Toyota $250M additional investment (cumulative ~$900M, +30% efficiency improvement by transplanting Toyota production system), Marina(CA) 24 units/year + Dayton(OH) 700K sqft facility with a roadmap for 500 units/year capacity in the future (Source: jobyaviation.com 2026 announcement; Spectrum IEEE; NBC New York 2026).

NARRATIVE Archer is making the UAE its "second home," outsourcing production to Stellantis (up to $400M, Georgia plant capacity of 650 units/year), United Airlines 200 pre-orders, and a hybrid propulsion defense program with Anduril ($430M capital raising) Non-FAA revenue path + diversification of defense to offset certification delays (Source: investors.archer.com 2026; TopGear, 2026; Aviation Week, 2026).

RUMOR A May 2026 Trefis report warned that "Joby's stock price could fall by 35%" due to accelerated cash burn and lack of visibility of profits until FY27. Some sell-side analysts at TipRanks lowered the PT to $13 (Hold) after the 5/5 earnings (Source: Trefis 2026-05-05; TipRanks "PT Trimmed", 2026-05). This is interpreted as a signal of profit-taking from momentum trading rather than fundamentals.