MSFT·META·GOOGL·AMZN simultaneously raised their 2026 capex guidance at the end of April. With a combined $700B in capital expenditures congealing due to memory, power, and thermal management bottlenecks, the AI infrastructure cycle has entered the second stage of "demand visibility vs. margin pressure." The core bottleneck has shifted from GPU to HBM·power·advanced packaging.
Conclusion 1 — The capex cycle is not over. The Q1 2026 results and guidance of the four Big Tech companies announced on April 28-29 suggest not just "continued AI investment" but acceleration. Alphabet raised its FY26 capex guidance from $175–185B to $180–190B, and Meta raised the $115–135B range to $125–145B. Amazon specified FY26 ~$200B, and Microsoft officially stated that "FY26 growth rate will exceed FY25." FACT
Conclusion 2 — Demand visibility justifies capex. Microsoft's commercial RPO is $392B(+51% YoY), and Google Cloud's backlog has doubled in one quarter to exceed $460B. AWS revenue growth rate recorded the highest in 15 quarters at 28%. The key change this quarter is that the GW-scale data centers being built by hyperscalers are backed by confirmed multi-year contracts. FACT
Conclusion 3 — The bottleneck has shifted to HBM and power. SK Hynix recorded its highest-ever quarter with Q1 2026 revenue of KRW 52.58 trillion and an operating profit margin of 71.8%, and Samsung Electronics' semiconductor division exceeded 2025 annual semiconductor profits in a single quarter with a single-quarter operating profit of KRW 53.7 trillion. Both Samsung and SK Hynix officially warned that "HBM supply shortages will continue until 2027," and hyperscalers' cumulative HBM purchase commitments exceed 3 years of forward supply. FACT
Meta plummeted -7% after hours despite the earnings beat. The market interpreted the $107B quarterly single commitment step-up and capex increase as questioning ROI visibility. In addition, Q1 net income of $26.8B includes $8B in one-time tax benefits, so the appropriate normal EPS is lower than the figure reflected in the consensus. INFERENCE This is interpreted as a signal that the market is starting to price in not "capex acceleration itself" but "the section where the pace of acceleration exceeds revenue recognition."
Source: Each company's 4/29~30 earnings release · Unit USD Bn · MSFT is estimated and converted due to accounting year differences
| Company | Revenue | YoY | Key KPI | Quarterly Capex | FY26 Capex Guide | Stock Reaction | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft US | $77.7B | +18% | Azure +40% / Cloud $49.1B / RPO $392B(+51%) | $34.9B | Acceleration Compared to FY25 | Rise | OW |
| Alphabet US | $109.9B | +20% | GCP $20.0B(+63%) / Backlog $460B / Gemini API +60% QoQ | $35.7B | $180–190B (↑$5B) | +6% | OW |
| Amazon US | $181.5B | +13% | AWS $37.6B(+28%, 15Q High) / Bedrock Token +170% QoQ | $44.2B | ~$200B | Rise | OW |
| Meta US | $56.3B | +33% | Advertising +33% / Quarterly Commitment Step-Up $107B | ~$30B* | $125–145B (↑$10B) | −7% | EW |
| Apple US | $143.8B | +16% | iPhone +23% / Services +14% / GM 48.2% | N/A | N/A | Rise | EW |
* Meta quarterly capex is estimated / Source: CNBC·Each Company IR (2026-04-29~30) · Cross-Verification Yahoo Finance, Reuters
The most important data this quarter is not revenue or EPS, but backlog. Microsoft's commercial RPO of $392B(+51% YoY) and Google Cloud's backlog of $460B (doubled QoQ) provide the strongest rebuttal to the two-year-old question of "Is AI investment a bubble?" Both figures are multi-year binding contracts and partially guarantee the payback period of capex. FACT
However, at the same time, the pressure factors are also clear. MSFT's gross profit margin declined YoY due to the impact of "AI infrastructure scaling," and Amazon's 12-month FCF decreased by -95% YoY to only $1.2B. Meta explicitly acknowledged rising component prices, raising the top of its capex guidance to $145B. This suggests that the bottom of the 2026-2027 margin cycle is forming.
The market asks the same question differently each quarter.