The 2024~2025 rally was predictable. GPU shortage → HBM shortage → Optical communication shortage. The bottleneck was clear, and the market reflected the price in that order. The current COHR at $250 and LITE at $677 already contain that story.

The problem is the next bottleneck. The AI ecosystem is now transitioning from overinvestment in "Training" infrastructure to the "Inference Diffusion" phase. Unlike training, inference creates completely different bottlenecks: power, edge, security, and automation. Most investors are still reading this transition only as an extension of the GPU theme.